| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 2025 | W | Sam Houston | 41-24 | 1507.3 | -34.4 | 1472.9 | 81.1% |
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | North Alabama | 55-6 | 1472.9 | +74.6 | 1547.5 | 89.7% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Toledo | 21-45 | 1547.5 | -70.0 | 1477.5 | 48.8% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Nevada | 31-16 | 1490.9 | +4.5 | 1495.4 | 64.4% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Missouri State | 27-22 | 1495.4 | +6.5 | 1501.9 | 68.0% |
| 7 | Oct 3 2025 | W | Delaware | 27-24 | 1501.9 | -0.5 | 1501.4 | 59.9% |
| 9 | Oct 14 2025 | L | Florida International | 6-25 | 1493.2 | -70.7 | 1422.5 | 78.8% |
| 10 | Oct 21 2025 | W | Louisiana Tech | 28-27 | 1422.5 | +3.4 | 1425.9 | 42.2% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | New Mexico State | 35-16 | 1425.9 | +14.3 | 1440.2 | 66.5% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | Middle Tennessee | 42-26 | 1451.7 | +11.9 | 1463.6 | 77.9% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | L | LSU | 10-13 | 1463.6 | +37.4 | 1501.0 | 8.5% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Jacksonville State | 34-37 | 1501.0 | -1.9 | 1499.1 | 55.1% |
| 19 | Dec 23 2025 | W | Southern Miss | 27-16 | 1495.1 | +3.6 | 1498.7 | 63.1% |