| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 2026 | L | Nevada | 14-49 | 1439.8 | -40.3 | 1399.6 | 43.9% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Georgia | 20-70 | 1399.6 | -25.6 | 1373.9 | 1.8% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Indiana | 0-38 | 1373.9 | +33.2 | 1407.2 | 0.6% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Mercyhurst | 52-7 | 1407.2 | +9.8 | 1417.0 | 98.2% |
| 5 | Oct 2 2026 | L | New Mexico State | 13-34 | 1417.0 | -31.3 | 1385.7 | 60.8% |
| 6 | Oct 8 2026 | W | Missouri State | 34-13 | 1385.7 | +27.8 | 1413.5 | 40.8% |
| 7 | Oct 15 2026 | W | Sam Houston | 16-3 | 1413.5 | +28.0 | 1441.4 | 51.7% |